Markets are cautiously optimistic heading into the final U.S. trading day before the July 4 holiday. Investors are juggling multiple key developments—from economic data to trade deals—that are shaping the short-term outlook. Here are the top 5 things moving markets today:

1. U.S. Futures Edge Higher on Trade Optimism

U.S. stock futures nudged higher Thursday, driven by improved trade sentiment and anticipation of key economic data. The move follows President Trump’s announcement of a new trade pact with Vietnam, which aims to lower tensions and stabilize the flow of key consumer goods like footwear and apparel.

• Dow futures: +39 points (+0.1%)

• S&P 500 futures: +6 points (+0.1%)

• Nasdaq 100 futures: +33 points (+0.1%)

Big tech names helped lift sentiment—shares of Nvidia and Apple ticked higher in early trading. With markets closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday, Thursday marks the last full session of the week.

2. Nonfarm Payrolls Report in Focus

Investors are bracing for the June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics—arguably the most important economic release of the week.

Economists expect:

• +111,000 jobs added (vs. 139,000 in May)

• Unemployment rate to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%

The labor market is showing signs of cooling, as firms delay hiring amid ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. Wednesday’s ADP report supported that view, though it’s not always a reliable predictor of the official BLS numbers.

The Federal Reserve will be closely watching today’s jobs data. While Chair Jerome Powell has kept a cautious tone, he acknowledged that rate cuts could be on the table at one of the Fed’s four remaining meetings this year—especially if labor and trade conditions worsen.

3. Trump Strikes New Trade Deal with Vietnam

Markets reacted positively after Trump unveiled a trade agreement with Vietnam, which includes:

• A 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam

• A 40% tariff on “transshipped” products—items routed through Vietnam to avoid China tariffs

This deal is seen as a compromise compared to Trump’s earlier proposals and could be part of a broader strategy to tighten global trade enforcement. It also carries implications for China, as Vietnam has become a popular re-export hub for Chinese goods.

Companies like Nike, which manufacture heavily in Vietnam, saw their shares climb on the news.

4. U.S. Lifts Chip Design Export Ban to China

In another positive trade development, the U.S. Commerce Department has lifted recent restrictions on chip design software exports to China. This move came as part of the broader easing in U.S.-China trade relations.

As a result:

• Synopsys (SNPS) shares surged 5.8%

• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) gained 4.7%

Both companies confirmed the export ban had been officially rescinded, unlocking fresh revenue potential in the Chinese market.

5. GOP Pushes for Policy Bill Ahead of Recess

Back in Washington, political developments are also on investors’ radar. House Republicans are working overtime to rally support for a sweeping, Trump-backed tax-and-spending bill.

The proposed legislation:

• Would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts

• Introduce new tax breaks

• Boost defense and border security spending

Despite internal resistance, GOP leaders are aiming for quick passage—possibly before the summer recess. The bill’s estimated cost is raising concerns, with analysts forecasting an additional $3.3 trillion in debt over the next decade.

Heading into a holiday-shortened week, markets are being pulled in several directions—trade optimism, labor market data, tech sector tailwinds, and political maneuvering. With NFPs in focus and Fed decisions looming, investors are treading carefully, but with a slightly bullish tilt.

Keep an eye on:

• NFP report at 8:30 AM ET

• Fed’s next policy signals

• Global trade developments, particularly U.S.-Asia dynamics